What is a scientist after all? It is a curious man looking through a keyhole, the keyhole of nature, trying to know what's going on.
- Jacques Cousteu

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Where, oh where, did the satellite fall?

I think one of the more humorous things I have read lately has been the story of the falling NASA satellite. I am sure most people heard about the satellite a month ago and there have been the occasional blurbs on the news since then. At one point NASA said that they would be able to only give a 2 hour warning for where the satellite would fall and that there was little chance that anyone would be injured. The actual statistic they gave was a 1 in 3,200 chance. Really? Considering the number of people on the planet, that number does not jive with “little chance.”
Anyway, last night about 10:15 local time NASA announced that the satellite would likely fall between 10:45 and 11:45 (local time). So much for a 2 hour warning. But even better was the statement that at the time of re-entry into our atmosphere the satellite would be passing over Canada and Africa as well as the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Now it has been a really long time since I have had a geography class or looked at a map for that matter, but I am pretty sure that all of those locations are spread out across the Earth and in no way did that announcement narrow things down or provide any kind of warning.
So, when I woke up this morning I decided to look and see if indeed the satellite came down and, if so, where? Well, it did but there is still no consensus on where. Basically NASA is not sure where the satellite re-entered, but they think it happened over the Pacific and that it all ended up in the ocean. Oh, but wait! If you read another story, also supposedly based on information from NASA, if the satellite came down later than when they think (apparently they are just making times up and really have no idea) then it would have rained down pieces over the Northwestern US. And, despite people all over the world looking up towards the sky for this falling satellite that was expected to be very visible as it came down, there are no sightings being reported and no pieces have been found yet.
Maybe it did end up in the ocean and maybe it broke apart differently than expected which did not give the visible show that everyone expected. I have no idea and have frankly lost interest during the time that I have spent writing this. But, what would be funny (and I don’t mean this in a sadistic way) is if all of those pieces are still floating around in the atmosphere and haven’t dropped yet, because today the statistic reported earlier is now being stated as 1 in 21 trillion. Maybe they shouldn’t speak so soon since they obviously have no idea what is going on….


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